With all these formulas, your are just getting in the "ballpark"
The only bittering capability in the final beer is produced by the Isomerzatoin of the alpha acids (humulone, cohumolone and adhumulone) to change their chemical structures into iso-alpha acids, which accounts for a very small portion of the total alpha acids present in the hops. Beta acids, lupulone, colupulon and adlupulone, will also form iso compounds in very small quantities and do not contribute to the beer's final bitterness.
The chemical change of the alpha acids can be effected by hot break, cold break, the pH, the time of boil, the intensity of the boil, the concentration of the initial acid in the hops, the age of the hops (oxidation reduction reaction), atmospheric pressure, final wort volume, wort gravity and on and on. The only true way to test the final iso-alpha in your beer is to test it with a gas chromatorgraphy mass spectrometry (I am still trying to get my hands on a used one for the basement...

) which is what the "big boys" do on each batch. Even the huge brewers can not get the final IBU consistent from batch to batch and will blend several batches to even out the inconsistencies and produce a similar IBU profile from bottling to bottling.
In the literature, it seams to me, the two biggest factors is your brewing procedural consistency and the boil time. Whole hop utilization ranges from approximately 15% at 30 min to 24% at 60-74 min and 27% longer then 74 min. Changes to your brewing conditions, volumes, vigor of the boil, size and shape of the boil vessel ..., can also effect the utilization.
The human pallet, on average has a sensitive threshold of approximately 5 IBUs. That is you can not taste the different in the bitterness in a beer + or - 5 IBU. So in essence there is a 10 IBU spread on the perceived bitterness in any beer you make.
So the take home point is, all the calculations for a home brewer are approximate. They will get you in a "ball park" range of bitterness of your final beer. Keep your process consistent from batch to batch, take good notes, have a sufficient boil time and your beer will be fine.
A real good reference is
Designing Great Beers by Ray Daniels, page 72-90. I think we have this in the club library, it not I would highly recommend it...great book.
Personally, I use Beer Smith to get me in the ballpark, take good notes on each brew and adjust fire from there.
Just my $0.02
Jason